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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 48

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-42-T.Hennessy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.84 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model