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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 8-S.Martin punts 32 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-52-A.Klein.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model