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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model