Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 13 – New England Patriots 27

(2:28) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy scrambles up the middle to ARI 37 for 5 yards (55-J.Uche, 91-D.Wise).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.48 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EP