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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 40

New England Patriots 27 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 17-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP