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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 31

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model