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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 55

New England Patriots 13 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 17-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to ARI 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 6 for no gain (41-B.Schooler; 18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.39 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model