Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 13 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(7:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.79 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.58 EP

KICK +0.40 EP

57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
43% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model