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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 32
Arizona Cardinals 13 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(:36) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride (48-J.Tavai).
The Three Options
GO
+1.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.06 EP
- 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -0.81 EP
KICK
+1.65 EP
- 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
- 23% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT
-0.09 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
