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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-D.Carter to MIA 2 for no gain (28-K.Kohou).

The Three Options

GO +3.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.42 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 2, worth +0.77 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model