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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 15-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model