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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 13, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model