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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 4-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to LAC 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model