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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to MIA 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model