Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(4:16) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to LAC 10, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model