Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(14:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LAC 20, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-D.Carter to LAC 20 for no gain (22-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model