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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 84

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LAC 34, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at MIA 43 for 23 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model