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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:11) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.82 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP