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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.62 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -2.14 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model