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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 11-R.Dixon punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model