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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 17-B.Mayfield pass short left to 3-C.Akers to LV 1 for 1 yard (25-T.Moehrig).

The Three Options

GO +4.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.25 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model