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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 18

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 2-D.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.88 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP