4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to LA 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP