4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 27

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.22 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP