Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 43

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(5:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.04 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.86 EP

KICK -0.13 EP

49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
51% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model