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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 7

Denver Broncos 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

What Actually Happened

(10:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 7, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model