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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP