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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to KC 24, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-Ju.Watson to KC 31 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model