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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 25

Houston Texans 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model