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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 40

Houston Texans 23 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to DAL 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-15-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP