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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to HOU 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-D.King to HOU 41 for 21 yards (57-L.Gifford). PENALTY on HOU-1-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.97 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP