Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 72

Houston Texans 23 – Dallas Cowboys 20

(13:32) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to DAL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model