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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 1

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to HOU 2 for -1 yards (25-D.King, 48-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +4.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.57 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model