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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(:44) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model