Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 77

Houston Texans 10 – Dallas Cowboys 14

(3:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to DAL 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 9 yards (15-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.51 EP
65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model