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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 30

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model