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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to WAS 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 86-A.Erickson pushed ob at WAS 38 for 6 yards (27-J.Pinnock).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model