4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 6-J.Slye 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP