4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 94

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 41, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-R.James to WAS 47 for 12 yards (41-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 94, worth -5.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 52, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model