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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 34

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 6-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model