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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 76

New York Giants 20 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to WAS 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 86-A.Erickson to WAS 26 for 6 yards (23-G.Brightwell; 38-Z.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.16 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP