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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 11-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to SEA 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.37 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model