Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 28 for no gain (83-D.Young). PENALTY on LA-96-K.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at LA 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.06 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model