Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass deep middle intended for 15-T.Atwell INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Barton at LA 41. 57-C.Barton to LA 31 for 10 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.32 EP
75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -2.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.51 EP