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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 8-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.96 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model