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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 63

New York Jets 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 7-B.Mann punts 37 yards to MIN 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model