4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 19

New York Jets 22 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [98-D.Wonnum] at MIN 1. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 6 for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.81 EP