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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Jets 22 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 10-B.Berrios (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +3.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model