4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 47

New York Jets 22 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle to 84-C.Davis to MIN 16 for 31 yards (24-C.Bynum).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model