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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 8

New York Jets 12 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 6-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP